Oil between 300 and 500 dollars per barrel?JP Morgan believes that this could be its fair price - elEconomista.es

2022-10-08 18:10:49 By : Ms. Xia Jason

As major consuming countries, led by the United States, announced this week that they will release oil from their national reserves to curb rising prices, a barrel of crude oil is actually quite cheap relative to other financial assets, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. .In a report published this week by Marko Kolanovic, a global strategist at the bank led by Jamie Dimon, Kolanovic and his team calculate a way to assess whether current oil prices are currently cheap or expensive by looking at the historical relationship with other asset classes. .As Kolanovic explains, oil prices are currently being driven by demand from reopening economies, supply issues due to underinvestment in energy infrastructure, and capital flows (for example, to ESG strategies). as well as the increase in the monetary base or general inflation, among other factors.However, when comparing crude oil prices to other major asset classes over the last 20 years, oil looks pretty cheap.Specifically, oil is only in the 12th percentile relative to world equities (and in the 7th percentile relative to US equities), in the 10th percentile relative to copper, in the 20th percentile relative to gold, in the 40th percentile relative to bonds and in the 8th percentile relative to central bank asset purchases."Conservatively, looking only at global stocks, bonds and commodities, oil is in the historical 19th percentile; to reach the historical median (50th percentile), oil would have to be trading at least $115 per barrel," explains the strategist.Kolanovic insists that this estimate is conservative, since "expensive assets" are excluded from his calculations, such as the balance sheets of central banks and the Nasdaq, which would imply that the average price of a barrel of crude oil should move between 300 and 500 dollars. .That said, JPMorgan's strategists take heed to warn that this is just one of many ways to analyze prices and does not represent their near-term crude oil targets.Still they conclude that relative to the general levels of the prices of various assets and the monetary base, oil is remarkably cheap.Kolanovic reckons that oil-producing countries (often developing countries) could be said to have been subsidizing oil-importing countries (often developed countries), given widespread asset and currency inflation in the developed world for the last 20 years.It is worth remembering how oil has had some precipitous declines over the years and, for example, is still well below the levels recorded from 2011 to 2014. This contrasts with many other financial assets, which are at record levels, something that suggests that oil has not kept pace with the growth of central bank balance sheets in their attempt to face the effects of the pandemic.No further comments can be made on this newsGiven that all the money that the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks have invested has gone into the speculative economy, one can somehow conclude that oil is cheap.If we take into consideration that in the underdeveloped world or third world oil or wood is used to prepare food, raising the price of oil means that people must use wood to cook and, therefore, cut down all the jungles and forests that still exist. remain.Expensive oil is equivalent to complete deforestation.Things that happen and that some analysts do not take into consideration.This data does not seem to fit into the percentiles, it simply falls outside of them.There are futures and they have money, they can get rich or be liars.Electricity at 300 eu/mw, crude oil at $200, rates at 2%.. welcome to the champions league 2.0 of Sanchinflas!!LOLOil at 300 s per barrel and gasoline at 3 euros per liter with taxes and Sanchez dirty ready putting on the boots of Iberian and wuiski because he collects much more