Life expectancy for women in Spain will exceed 90 years in 2071 and 86 for men - NIUS

2022-10-14 06:40:50 By : Ms. mary hou

Spain would gain more than four million inhabitants in the next 15 years (51.67 million in 2037) and more than five million until 2072 (up to 52.9 million inhabitants) if current demographic trends continue, according to Population projections between 2022 and 2072, published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).These figures are the result of the progressive and uninterrupted increase in deaths, always higher than the number of births, which would give rise to a negative natural balance throughout the projected period.However, this negative vegetative balance would be exceeded by the positive migratory balance, which would cause an increase in the population during all the years of the projected period.The increase in population would therefore be exclusively due to international migration, which would cause the population born in Spain to gradually decrease and go from representing 84.5% of the current total to 63.5% within 50 years. .In the case of the number of births, it would begin to increase in 2023 and would continue to grow until 2041. Between 2022 and 2036 around 5.5 million children would be born, 14.2% less than in the previous 15 years.However, from 2058 births could begin to increase again, due to the arrival at the ages of greatest fertility of increasingly numerous generations.Despite this, births would always be below deaths.The number of births is projected assuming that women's fertility maintains a slight but progressive upward trend.Thus, the average number of children per woman would be 1.27 in 2036, compared to the current 1.19.Life expectancy for women in Spain will exceed 90 years in 2071 and 86 for men.Women who turn 65 in 2022 will live on average 23.1 more years (up to 88.1 years) and men 19.1 more (84.1 years).Despite the increased life expectancy, the number of deaths would continue to grow until reaching a maximum in 2064. For the year 2022, the projection estimates a total of 455,704 deaths, compared to 449,270 in 2021, according to provisional results.For its part, in 2036 there would be 494,371 deaths among residents in Spain and in 2071 there would be 652,920 deaths.Given the decline in the birth rate and the increase in deaths, in Spain there would always be more deaths than births (growth or negative natural balance) during the next 15 years.This vegetative balance would reach its lowest value around 2061, and would recover slightly thereafter.According to provisional data, Spain registered 530,401 immigrations in 2021, while 381,724 people left the country to reside abroad.The migratory balance was 148,677 people, thus consolidating the positive trend that began in 2016.With the information available at the time of closing these projections, it is estimated that the migratory balance will increase in 2022, up to 484,137 people.A similar migratory balance is projected in 2023 and slightly decreasing from that year, thus obtaining a net population gain due to migration of 5.6 million people until 2036.The long-term trend would be for a constant growth in the migratory balance, which would produce a net increase in the population of 14.8 million people until 2071.